Deal reached overnight on second Greek bailout package

21/02/2012 | Chris Applin

:: United States Dollar: It was a quiet day for the USD yesterday, hardly surprising with most traders in the US away from their desks for Presidents day and the rest of the market awaiting any news regarding the second Greek bailout package. GBP/USD took its cue from EUR/USD on the day, moving to a high of 1.5880 during late morning trading before drifting lower. It is safe to expect more of the same range bound action today as the market begins to digest the headlines surrounding the agreement of the second Greek bailout, and on that basis cable should continue to track movements in the EUR/USD pair. The data calendar is very light again today, but the state of the UK's public finances will come under the spotlight with this mornings release of UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data for January . GBP/USD opens this morning at 1.5843.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5780 to 1.5900

:: Euro: The single currency posted some early gains against the USD and GBP on Monday, with EUR/USD trading to a high of 1.3277 and GBP/EUR falling to 1.1952, as investors focussed on some positive Greek headlines from the weekend media, but after the initial move higher the gains were consolidated as the market awaited news surrounding Greece. The press conference overnight revealed a decision had finally been reached by EU finance ministers, with emphasis on reducing the Greek debt to GDP ratio to 120% of GDP by 2020. So far the reaction to the decision has been somewhat muted, but the litmus test today will be the reaction from credit markets, in particular Euro zone bond yields, with narrowing yields indicating that the market believes there has been a reduction in contagion risk. Today we have another light data calendar out of Europe, with bailout headlines set to dictate how the single currency trades. GBP/EUR opens this morning at 1.1949.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.1910 to 1.2030

:: Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD drifted lower on Monday as investors remained subdued and unwilling to load up on risk ahead of any news out of Athens. This price action was reflected in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD crosses, with the former trading in 1.4700-1.4760 range and the latter moving in a 1.8830-1.8915 range. The Greek deal announcement overnight helped the commodity dollars higher, but large size EUR/AUD buying nullified any big moves higher in AUD/USD. Overnight we also had the release of the minutes from the most recent RBA interest rate decision, with emphasis placed on the appropriateness of rates given the current economic outlook. Broad risk sentiment in the wake of the second Greek bailout decision is likely to dictate price action in the commodity dollars today. GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD open at 1.4795 and 1.8922 respectively.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.4690 to 1.4870

- We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.8840 to 1.9000

:: Data Releases:

  • AUD: Wage Price Index
  • EUR: Eurozone Consumer Confidence, EU Finance Ministers meet in Brussels
  • GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • NZD: Credit Card Spending
  • USD: Chicago Fed Index

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