:: United States Dollar: The USD had a mixed day on Friday, falling against most of its European area counterparts but performing well against the commodity dollar bloc. Sterling in particular performed well against the greenback, with cable rallying to a high of 1.5862 on the back of a very strong UK retail sales print for January, which came in at 1.2% m/m versus expectations of -0.3% m/m. This much better than expected figure is obviously a plus for the UK economy, with the stronger consumer consumption likely to reduce the need for further asset purchases by the Bank of England. Profit taking took cable back down to the 1.58 handle where it consolidated for the rest of the session. Sentiment towards the pound was also better on the day as investors became more optimistic that an agreement on the Greek bailout was imminent, as European officials continued to maintain that a deal was very close. It’s a public holiday in the US today and we have no economic releases from the UK, but it could still be a choppy session as Euro group ministers continue to try to flesh out an agreement regarding the Greek aid package. GBP/USD opens this morning at 1.5850.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5780 to 1.5920

:: Euro: EUR/USD performed well on Friday, pushing higher as investor confidence grew that a Greek bailout decision was imminent, but the currency pair fell short of a break through the 1.32 handle as profit taking sales took hold as the week drew to a close. The 17-nation currency fell against the pound on the back of the much better than expected UK retail sales number for January, sending GBP/EUR to an intraday high of 1.2060 before the pair traced back down towards the 1.20 level. Over the weekend there have been some positive developments for the single currency, with the Greek cabinet approving EUR 325 million in extra cuts (bringing them closer to fulfilling the required bailout criterion) and there were also reports of a Euro zone official stating that there is a decent chance of the deal being finalised by the end of today. This expectation has seen the EUR open the week higher across the board, also supported as risk took a leg higher on news of this weekend’s Chinese 50bp RRR cut. On that basis the single currency is likely to remain well supported ahead of this afternoon’s Greek bailout discussions. GBP/EUR opens this morning at 1.2017.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.1950 to 1.2070

:: Aussie and Kiwi Dollars: The AUD didn’t participate in the risk rally on Friday, with AUD/USD trading to a low of 1.0689. The main reason for bearish price action could be found in the EUR/AUD pair which sprang higher from its heavily oversold levels, leaving EUR/AUD shorts to cover their positions by selling AUD. Sterling was able to capitalise on the prevailing AUD weakness, with GBP/AUD rallying to an intraday high of 1.4794. The NZD performed better than its antipodean counterpart on the day, but GBP/NZD was still able to rally to a high of 1.9032 from a start close to 1.8900. Positive headlines over the weekend regarding the Greek bailout situation and the Chinese RRR cut has seen the commodity currencies gap higher this morning, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD spiking to 1.0815 and 0.8430 respectively and consequently both GBP/antipodean crosses open lower, with GBP/AUD at 1.4728 and GBP/NZD at 1.8870 respectively.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.4650 to 1.4800

- We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.8800 to 1.8960

:: Data Releases:

• AUD: RBA MPC meeting minutes, RBA Governor Stevens to speak
• EUR: French Business Confidence, Italian Industrial Orders, Euro Area Finance Ministers meet in Brussels
• GBP: No data due for release
• NZD: Inflation Expectations
• USD: No data due for release