Monday Morning Commentary
:: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD has retraced from Friday’s high of 1.0040 and is sitting at the .9975 support zone. We will remain susceptible to European events but the market appears happy to buy CAD on any major weakness for the time being. A move above 1.0085 is needed to snap this tendency while below .9945 will open the door for a retest of lower levels. Friday we have the release of inflation data that will likely confirm the Bank of Canada will not be raising rates any time soon.
Expected Range 0.9925 to 1.0030
:: Canadian Dollar vs Euro: The Market reacts positively to the Greek parliament’s approval of the purposed austerity measures. European equity and Asian equity made gains on the news. While it is a positive step there still needs to be another EUR 300 million in austerity measures to offset last week’s rejected pension reforms, the Eurogroup must approve financing for Greece & there still needs to be a private sector agreement in place all by March 20 to avoid default.
Expected Range 1.3190 to 1.3256
:: Canadian Dollar vs British Pound, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar: The Sterling is opening this morning off at around 1.5770 heading into the new week. The GBP is still trading within a weekly range of 1.5696 – 1.5843 and the release of domestic data this week might have some affect. CPI numbers, Inflationary report and retail sales results will all be released this week. The Australian Dollar starts off this trading session at the 1.0731 level. Good news from Greece and better than expected Home Loan numbers has caused the AUD to over perform in the last two sessions. Movements this week should be driven by market sentiments. The New Zealand Dollar is changing hands at around 0.8332 heading into the North American trading session. The Kiwi tested the 6 month high overnight. Risk this week is Core Retails sales that will be released tomorrow.
:: Data Releases:
AUD: Home Loans
CAD: No data expected today
EUR: German WPI
GBP: RICS House Price Balance
JPY: Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate, Revised Industrial Production
NZD: FPI, REINZ HPI
USD: No data expected today