Tuesday Commentary
:: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD remains range bound as the pair is pulled in different directions by various market sentiments. A move above 1.0085 is needed to alleviate downward pressure and I believe this will come in the form of continued European concerns as we head closer towards the March 20 Greek bond payment date. While stronger U.S. data may temporarily provide a haven for CAD, this tendency has not held fast for every such result in the past and has been out muscled by risk aversion over Europe.
Expected range 0.9970 to 1.0030
:: Canadian Dollar vs Euro: German investor confidence spiked to a 10 month high and Italian borrowing costs fell which lifted market sentiment despite Moody’s falling in line with other rating agencies & downgrading debt ratings of six European countries.
Expected range 1.3115 to 1.3193
:: Canadian Dollar vs British Pound, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar: The Sterling is opening this morning at 1.5707 despite CPI data falling in line with forecasts. The GBP weakness was due to Moody placing the UK’s triple A rating on negative watch. Focus is now turned to Governor King and BoE’s Inflation report tomorrow. The Australian Dollar is changing hands at 1.0703 this session weaker from yesterday’s close. After 2 months of solid growth, the AUD seems to be losing some steam. There are no further risk events remaining for the rest of the week. The New Zealand Dollar is opening this trading session at 0.8322. The Kiwi has been range bound for the past 2 weeks and it should be within range as there are no schedule risk events for the remaining of the week.
:: Data Releases:
AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment, New Motor Vehicle Sales
CAD: New Motor Vehicle Sales
EUR: French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Industrial Production, ZEW Economic Sentiment
GBP: CPI, RPI, Core CPI, DCLG HPI, CD Leading Index, BOE Inflation Letter
JPY: BOJ Press Conference
NZD: Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales
USD: Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Import Prices, Business Inventories