Wednesday Commentary

15/02/2012 | Frederick Cheng

:: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD has drifted lower in this back drop and is near recent lows.  We are still within recent ranges and need to trade below .9880 to see a further leg lower.  Strong support remains between .9925 & .9880 with .9980 above being resistance.  USD/ CAD continues to confuse & confound the market as cross plays, fundamentals & market sentiment continue to result in a range trade for the time being.

Expected range today 0.9925 to 1.0013

:: Canadian Dollar vs Euro: Risk appetite is healthy once again today with China’s central bank making supportive comments on the Euro zone situation and their willingness to step in at the appropriate time.  He did not, however, mention if that time would be to pick up the pieces and reality dictates that most of the support will have to come from within Europe.  The Financial Times is reporting that the Greek private sector discussions may have an agreement and could be voted on at next Monday’s Euro group meeting which is also supporting this risk rally. 

 Expected range today 1.2998 to 1.3114

:: Canadian Dollar vs British Pound, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar: Sterling weakness continues against the Loonie, dropping to the 1.5669 levels heading into the morning session.  The BoE inflation forecast earlier was higher than many economists had expected at 1.8%, prompting doubt about further QE, and unemployment claims numbers reached its highest levels in two years.  The Australian dollar regained against the Loonie this morning, opening at the 1.0687 levels as consumer confidence figures were positive and higher risk appetite.  The New Zealand dollar has also followed suit against the Loonie on improved market sentiment and positive retail sales numbers.  The pair is currently exchanging hands around the 0.8341 levels heading into the North American session.

:: Data Releases:
AUD:          MI Inflation Expectations, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
CAD:          No data expected today
EUR:          French Prelim GDP, German Prelim GDP, Italian Prelim GDP, Flash GDP, Trade Balance
GBP:          Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Earning Index, Inflation Report, Nationwide Consumer Confidence
JPY:           BOJ Monthly Report
NZD:          Business NZ Manufacturing Index
USD:          Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long Term Purchase, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes

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